Thursday, June 25, 2015

Kerry to Travel to Vienna for Talks 26 June; Iran Supreme Leader Nixing a Deal?


The Department of State announced Secretary Kerry will travel to Vienna for another round of talks between the P5+1 & Iran 26 June.  Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif will join the 27th. 
Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader has been Tweeting his redlines . . .

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Commentary: The Iran deal proves that peace is possible

Foreign Policy published a piece by Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council:

"Behind the wonky op-eds about enrichment, breakout capability, and sanctions relief, there is an innovative attempt to find a lasting peace that I believe is unparalleled. If the two sides manage to reach a deal by their June 30 deadline, their achievement will go beyond just preventing a war or blocking Iran’s paths to a bomb. The real achievement may be that a major international conflict — a conflict that has brought the United States and Iran to the brink of war in recent years — has been resolved through a compromise achieved by diplomacy."

Iran Positioned to Unload Oil if a Deal Can be Done

In a 15 June story, Reuters (Saul) reported "Iran is storing as much as 40 million barrels of oil on supertankers at sea as it prepares for a sales drive if a nuclear deal can be sealed . . . The first thing they will try and do is offload quite a lot of that storage. (Oil Minister Bijan) Zanganeh has already warned OPEC: make room for us. In other words, we are going to sell this oil at any price," said Mehdi Varzi, a former official at the state-run National Iranian Oil Co."

Former Obama & Bush Aids, Congressmen, Release Public Statement

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy released a public statement  advising on the necessary features of a deal with Iran.  The bipartisan group of former advisors to presidents Bush & Obama, as well as former members of Congress, offer recommendations on necessary features of a good deal, and "[w]ithout these features, many of us will find it difficult to support a nuclear agreement with Iran. . . . we urge the U.S. administration not to treat June 30 as an “inviolable” deadline. Stay at the negotiating table until a “good” agreement that includes these features is reached. [In a separate piece, former State Dept official & Obama advisor Dennis Ross offers "don't let the deadline drive the deal"] Extend the existing Joint Plan of Action while negotiations continue. This will freeze Iran’s nuclear activity and international sanctions at current levels.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Delay Past the 30 June Deadline for an Agreement is Possible Due to . . .

6/13: Reuters (Wilkin) reports from President Rouhani: Iran will accept IAEA Inspections, but will not compromise State SecretsU.S. and French diplomats have called for Iran to accept stringent measures including granting inspectors access to its military sites as well as inspections on as little as two hours notice -- access that the Protocol could encompass.  Rouhani said Iran could embrace the Protocol, noting that other states that are signatories to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) had done so without problem.
   But he insisted Iran should not face especially far-reaching measures.  "A problem we face on many issues is that when we reach a framework in one meeting, our negotiating partners go back on it in the next meeting," said Rouhani . . . .   "If the other side sticks to the framework that has been established, and does not bring new issues into play, I believe it can be solved... But if they want to take the path of brinkmanship, the negotiations could take longer."
   The IAEA has long had regular, if limited, access to Iran's nuclear-related sites. But Tehran has refused to let the agency visit military sites, citing the risk of security-sensitive information being passed on to Western intelligence agencies. 

6/11: Suspected Espionage in Nuke Talks:  If Rouhani is concerned about the P6 being disingenuous, this might raise his hackles:  CNN (Smith-Stark) reports:
Swiss and Austrian authorities are investigating claims of potential espionage during recent nuclear talks between Iran and world powers, including the United States, officials from each nation said ThursdayThe investigations started after Russian Internet security firm Kaspersky Lab said this week that it had uncovered a sophisticated cyberespionage weapon in use around the world, and specifically targeting hotels that hosted the nuclear talks.  

Of course, the alleged spying may be neither side involved in the negotiations . . .