P5+1 & Iran Strike a Deal

A deal is agreed, not only between the P5+1, but a lesser-reported deal on a roadmap between the IAEA & Iran.

Update: The deal, termed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is here.

Al Jazeera coverage on the P5+1/Iran deal begins here, and also:

- Report (Movahed) on the unleashing of Iran's economy ("In short, an expansion in exports of the nonoil sectors such as manufacturing will allow Iran to adopt the growth model that the East Asian “tigers” such as South Korea and China followed. If Rouhani can keep the nuclear deal on course and implement new economic policies, Iran may soon be recognized as one of the world’s most promising economies of the 21st century." (embedded links removed))
- Report (Fenton) on Obama's challenge to now reassure Gulf allies, as well as the dunamcs of that bloc ("President Barack Obama may have hoped to gather the leaders of all the U.S.-allied Arab monarchies who make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at Camp David on Thursday, but only two of the six invited nations, Qatar and Kuwait, are sending their heads of state.  The most significant no-show will be Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud Salman. The king’s decision to send his crown prince and deputy crown prince instead is made more notable by the fact that the White House had previously announced that Salman would be present. . . . The downgrading of attendance by some of the Gulf leaders (Bahrain also changed its representation, while the leaders of the UAE and Oman are staying away due to ongoing health issues) 'is an illustration of the lack of trust that exists with the Obama administration,' said Joseph Kechichian, a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.")
- Analysis of Iranian conservatives' critical view of the deal ("The recent quarrel between Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Mahdi Kouchakzadeh, a hardline member of parliament, is an indication that an agreement, if reached, could increase political tensions in Iran.")

Reuters coverage here, (multiple attributions) ("Under the deal, sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union and United Nations would be lifted in return for Iran agreeing long-term curbs on a nuclear program that the West has suspected was aimed at creating a nuclear bomb") as well as:

- Live coverage of breaking events
- Report (Stephenson) on dropping price of crude

Haaretz covers Israeli criticism of the deal: ("Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers was 'a mistake of historic proportions,' issuing yet another attack on the agreement less than an hour before the two sides were to formally announce the deal." (embedded quotes removed))

And an opinion piece (Michael) critical of Netanyahu's stance (registration required).

Lastly, the IAEA released a statement on the roadmap deal, said the Director General: "The Road-map sets out a process, under the November 2013 Framework for Cooperation, to enable the Agency, with the cooperation of Iran, to make an assessment of issues relating to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme by the end of 2015. It sets out a clear sequence of activities over the coming months, including the provision by Iran of explanations regarding outstanding issues. It provides for technical expert meetings, technical measures and discussions, as well as a separate arrangement regarding the issue of Parchin."

Early Outline of the Deal?

Reuters reports  (Hafezi, Charbonneau, Irish, Mohammed) "U.N. inspectors would have access to all suspect Iranian sites, including military ones, under a draft nuclear deal that six major powers and Iran are working to finalize on Tuesday, a diplomatic source said."  Al Jazeera (unattributed) also provided an update, though it offered no assertion of imminently closing the deal.  

Reuters continued: 

The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the U.N. access would be based on consultations between the six powers and Iran under the draft deal, which would impose limits on the Iranian nuclear program in return for economic sanctions relief.

The foreign ministers of Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States met for about an hour just after midnight as they struggled to complete the agreement, which has been under negotiation for more than 20 months. 

An agreement, if one can be reached, could mark a watershed in Tehran's relations with Western nations, which suspect that Iran has used its civil nuclear program as a cover to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Iran denies this.

A comprehensive meeting between Iran and the powers will be held at 0800 GMT on Tuesday (4 am EDT), the semi-official Fars news agency reports.  Iran's Foreign Minister . . . and E.U.'s Foreign Policy Chief . . . are expected to read a joint statement.

No Deal Yet

Updates from Reuters & Iranian PressTV . . .

From Reuters: "'I cannot promise whether the remaining issues can be resolved tonight or tomorrow night. Some issues still remain unresolved and, until they are solved, we cannot say an agreement has been reached,' Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi as saying in Vienna.  Diplomats close to the talks said there were contingency plans for an announcement ceremony on Monday if the negotiators sealed an agreement, which would open the door to ending sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy in exchange for at least a decade of curbs on its nuclear program."

From PressTV: "During their [Monday] meeting, the Chinese foreign minister told Zarif, 'I saw your public comment. We had expected an agreement to be reached on the 12th [of July] and you said in your public comment there will not be any further extensions beyond the 13th, sending out a positive message.'  Zarif responded, 'I obviously believe there shouldn't be any extension but we could work as long as necessary to finish this.'  Speaking after the meeting with his US Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday, Zarif said there is no plan to extend the talks."

Meanwhile, TheGuardian looks at oil prices in should a deal occur.

16 Days in Vienna...talks on third extension...Deal close?

On Friday the talks were extended until tomorrow, 13 July.   This also means the Joint Plan of Action, which is the interim agreement from November, is also extended, as is the freeze on EU & US sanctions.

According to a Friday NBC News report (Abdullah), "The sides remain divided over issues that include a U.N. arms embargo on Iran which Western powers want to keep in place, access for inspectors to military sites in Iran and answers from Tehran over past activity suspected of military aims."

Meanwhile, CBS News reports (CBS/AP) Iran's Supreme Leader called for continued struggle against the United States: "Iran's state-run Press TV cited Khamenei as calling the U.S. an 'excellent example of arrogance.' It said Khamenei told university students in Tehran to be 'prepared to continue the struggle against arrogant powers.'  Even if Khamenei isn't signaling that the talks have failed, his comments appear to be a blow to U.S. hopes that an agreement will lead to improved bilateral relations that could translate into increased cooperation in a common cause - the fight against Islamic radicals."

And today, the Times of Israel, relaying reports from Iranian news outlet PressTV, reported Zarif rejected closing a deal before Monday.  "The marathon nuclear talks underway in Vienna still require 'some more work," said Zarif.  "Sunday evening’s negotiations included a meeting between Iran’s deputy foreign ministers at the talks, Abbas Araqchi and Majid Takht-e Ravanchi, and US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and National Security Council official Robert Malley . . . . The comments from Zarif echoed an earlier statement from Western diplomats that the sides would likely sign the deal Monday, but still had issues to overcome.  In Tehran, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said Sunday the sides were 'very close.'"  The piece continued, quoting one Iranian official, "'we are working hard, but a deal tonight is simply logistically impossible,' the Iranian official said, noting that the agreement will run roughly 100 pages."

Update

A number of sources (Economic Times, CNS News, ABC News) have provided a similar update as the current round of talks enter their 13th (and final?) day:

"US Secretary of State Kerry . . . has been in Vienna since 26 June, while Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif has made a short trip to Tehran [for a consult].  Other foreign ministers have come and gone, however all but the top diplomats from Russia and China were expected to be present at Thursday's meetings."  [The latter two are at the BRIC Summit in Ufa, Russia.]  Also, "on Wednesday US Energy Secretary Moniz met with Iranian nuclear cheif Ali Akbar Salehi for more than three hours, indicating that problems remained that only technicians can solve."  The rest is rehash of previously reported tidbits:

• Iran's President was preparing for a "post-sanctions" era, suggesting a deal might be in sight.
• President Obama conferred with the US negotiating team via secure video conference to provide guidance
• If the talks are approved after Thursday, Congress will have two months to review the accord, vice one if the deal is made by Thursday.
• Secretary Kerry "has been in Vienna since 26 June, while Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has made a short trip to Tehran for consultations.  Other foreign ministers have come & gone, however all but the top diplomats from Russian and China were expected to be present at Thursday's meetings."  
• "On Wednesday, US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz met with Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi for more than three hours, indicating problems remained that only technicians could solve."
• Iran's Zarif: With mutual respect anything is possible
• US (White House): We'll walk away if we don't have a good deal
• US Repubicans, as well as Israel & Saudi Arabia, remain skeptical

The NYT (Gordon) adds the political dimension as to the extended push, and why today is so important: "

“It is pretty darn hard for the Iranians to go home and deal with the politics in Iran,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under the ground rules for the briefing. “Everyone understands that once we leave here, we are in less control of what happens in this negotiation. It gets more complicated, not less complicated.”

Also, some more details: "As Mr. Moniz and Mr. Salehi tried to resolve the final issues on Thursday morning, Federica Mogherini, the foreign policy chief for the European Union, convened a separate session with Mr. Kerry and senior diplomats from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia, the five other world powers that are taking part in the negotiations with Iran."

The deadline is midnight Thursday (2pm EDT).

7 July Deadline Passes. . .

State Department Spokesperson John Kirby reports the talks are extended (sort of) until 10 July:  "in order to allow for additional time to negotiate we’re going to take the necessary technical steps we need for the measures of the Joint Plan of Action to remain in place through July 10th. Secretary Kerry will remain in Vienna to continue discussions with our P5+1 partners, High Representative Mogherini, and Foreign Minister Zarif. We’re taking these negotiations hour by hour, day by day, and we made substantial progress, I think, in many areas. But the work is highly technical and very, very important for everybody concerned. So again, I think this was a practical step that needed to be taken, and it was taken, and Secretary Kerry and the team remain out there . . . ." The conference continued . . .

Six Days of Meetings . . .

Reuters (Mohammid & Irish) updates the talks: "Many of the issues related to sanctions have been resolved, and there are four or five issues that remain including the important topic of ensuring both sides' steps correspond to each other and happen at the same time," Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted as saying by the ISNA agency."  It continues: "But the six powers had yet to agree with Iran on a United Nations Security Council resolution that would lift U.N. sanctions and establish a means of re-imposing them in case of Iranian non-compliance with a future agreement."  The sides have extended the self-imposed deadline to get a deal to Tuesday.

Meanwhile, if talks fail, the LA Times (Hennigan) reports the U.S. is stockpiling the powerful 15 ton bunker-busting bombs..."Obama has made it clear that he has no desire to order an attack, warning that U.S. airstrikes on Iran's air defense network and nuclear facilities would spark a destabilizing new war in the Middle East, and would only delay Iran by several years should it choose to build a bomb."

Deadline Extended

USAToday reported Tuesday the sides agreed to extend the deadline for a long-term deal until 7 July.  Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif was back in Vienna Tuesday with the Head of Iran's atomic agency, and Hossein Fereidoun, special adviser to President Hassan Rouhani.  Zarif unexpectedly left for consultations on Sunday after a day in Vienna.

Today, IAEA Chief Yukiya Amano flew to Tehran to discuss the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear activity.  Said a senior Western diplomat, "We can imagine that this is a positive sign. The Iranians invited him."

Meanwhile, as the Guardian reported, "one of the lead Iranian negotiators, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, Majid Ravanchi, gave an unusually detailed interview to Ariane Tabatabai, a Georgetown academic, for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, laying out the state of play as Tehran sees it."  The interview includes Iran's stand on the inspection of its military facilities and sanctions.

Kerry to Travel to Vienna for Talks 26 June; Iran Supreme Leader Nixing a Deal?

The Department of State announced Secretary Kerry will travel to Vienna for another round of talks between the P5+1 & Iran 26 June.  Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif will join the 27th. 
Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader has been Tweeting his redlines . . .

Commentary: The Iran deal proves that peace is possible

Foreign Policy published a piece by Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council:

"Behind the wonky op-eds about enrichment, breakout capability, and sanctions relief, there is an innovative attempt to find a lasting peace that I believe is unparalleled. If the two sides manage to reach a deal by their June 30 deadline, their achievement will go beyond just preventing a war or blocking Iran’s paths to a bomb. The real achievement may be that a major international conflict — a conflict that has brought the United States and Iran to the brink of war in recent years — has been resolved through a compromise achieved by diplomacy."

Iran Positioned to Unload Oil if a Deal Can be Done

In a 15 June story, Reuters (Saul) reported "Iran is storing as much as 40 million barrels of oil on supertankers at sea as it prepares for a sales drive if a nuclear deal can be sealed . . . The first thing they will try and do is offload quite a lot of that storage. (Oil Minister Bijan) Zanganeh has already warned OPEC: make room for us. In other words, we are going to sell this oil at any price," said Mehdi Varzi, a former official at the state-run National Iranian Oil Co."

Former Obama & Bush Aids, Congressmen, Release Public Statement

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy released a public statement  advising on the necessary features of a deal with Iran.  The bipartisan group of former advisors to presidents Bush & Obama, as well as former members of Congress, offer recommendations on necessary features of a good deal, and "[w]ithout these features, many of us will find it difficult to support a nuclear agreement with Iran. . . . we urge the U.S. administration not to treat June 30 as an “inviolable” deadline. Stay at the negotiating table until a “good” agreement that includes these features is reached. [In a separate piece, former State Dept official & Obama advisor Dennis Ross offers "don't let the deadline drive the deal"] Extend the existing Joint Plan of Action while negotiations continue. This will freeze Iran’s nuclear activity and international sanctions at current levels.

Delay Past the 30 June Deadline for an Agreement is Possible Due to . . .

6/13: Reuters (Wilkin) reports from President Rouhani: Iran will accept IAEA Inspections, but will not compromise State Secrets.  U.S. and French diplomats have called for Iran to accept stringent measures including granting inspectors access to its military sites as well as inspections on as little as two hours notice -- access that the Protocol could encompass.  Rouhani said Iran could embrace the Protocol, noting that other states that are signatories to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) had done so without problem.
   But he insisted Iran should not face especially far-reaching measures.  "A problem we face on many issues is that when we reach a framework in one meeting, our negotiating partners go back on it in the next meeting," said Rouhani . . . .   "If the other side sticks to the framework that has been established, and does not bring new issues into play, I believe it can be solved... But if they want to take the path of brinkmanship, the negotiations could take longer."
   The IAEA has long had regular, if limited, access to Iran's nuclear-related sites. But Tehran has refused to let the agency visit military sites, citing the risk of security-sensitive information being passed on to Western intelligence agencies. 

6/11: Suspected Espionage in Nuke Talks:  If Rouhani is concerned about the P6 being disingenuous, this might raise his hackles:  CNN (Smith-Stark) reports:

Swiss and Austrian authorities are investigating claims of potential espionage during recent nuclear talks between Iran and world powers, including the United States, officials from each nation said ThursdayThe investigations started after Russian Internet security firm Kaspersky Lab said this week that it had uncovered a sophisticated cyberespionage weapon in use around the world, and specifically targeting hotels that hosted the nuclear talks.  

Of course, the alleged spying may be neither side involved in the negotiations . . .

Kerry & Zarif Meeting Update

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry & Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met for six hours on Saturday trying to overcome obstacles to a final nuclear agreement.  They were the first substantive talks since Iran struck an interim accord with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China on April 2. The deadline for a deal between Tehran and six world powers is 30 June.

Reports: Reuters, Times of Israel, Haaretz 

Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners are put off by the chumminess between Kerry and Zarif.

P5+1 Renews Talks Today in Vienna; Secretary Kerry to meet with Oranian Team May 30th in Geneva

The Department of State issued a press release today announcing "Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and the U.S. negotiating team will travel on May 27 to Vienna, Austria, to take part in the EU-coordinated P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran. On May 30, Under Secretary Sherman will join Secretary Kerry in Geneva, Switzerland, for meetings with Iranian officials. Under Secretary Sherman will then return to Vienna to continue to participate in the EU-coordinated P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran.

On a side note, CNN reports the lead U.S. negotiator, Undersecretary Wendy Sherman, is retiring. 

Czechs stopped potential nuclear tech purchase by Iran

Reuters posted an exclusive: The Czech Republic blocked an attempted purchase by Iran this year of a large shipment of sensitive technology useable for nuclear enrichment after false documentation raised suspicions, U.N. experts and Western sources said. The incident could add to Western concerns about whether Tehran can be trusted to adhere to a nuclear deal being negotiated with world powers under which it would curb sensitive nuclear work in exchange for sanctions relief.  Some details of the attempted purchase were described in the latest annual report of an expert panel for the United Nations Security Council's Iran sanctions committee, which has been seen by Reuters.

A Deal is Struck

Ok, the P5+1 & Iran have struck a deal.  Foreign Policy churned out some materials:
Report #1 on the deal: "The broad outlines of the deal, announced in a joint statement in Switzerland by the European Union’s chief diplomat, Federica Mogherini, and Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, included steep concessions on both sides."
Report #2 on the deal: Deal Threatens to Upend a Delicate Balance of Power in the Middle East:
"While both the United States and Iran insist that negotiations pertain solely to Tehran’s nuclear program, leaders across the Arab world see the agreement through the prism of the Middle East’s delicate balance of power and the many conflicts racking the region."
Report #3: Top five things to know about the deal...centrifuges, breakout times, Iran's Three Enrichment Sites, Inspections, & Pace of Sanctions Relief
Report #4: The skeptics guide to the deal

The NY Times:
Report #1: "Mr. Kerry and Energy Secretary Ernest J. Moniz, a nuclear scientist who played a crucial role in the last stages of the negotiations, said the pact satisfied their primary goal of ensuring that Iran, if it decided to, could not race for a nuclear weapon in less than a year, although those constraints against “breakout” would be in effect only for the first decade of the accord."
Report #2: Obama's Foreign Policy Gamble...“Right now, he has no foreign policy legacy,” said Cliff Kupchan, an Iran specialist who has been tracking the talks as chairman of the Eurasia Group, a consulting firm. “He’s got a list of foreign policy failures. A deal with Iran and the ensuing transformation of politics in the Middle East would provide one of the more robust foreign policy legacies of any recent presidencies. It’s kind of all in for Obama. He has nothing else. So for him, it’s all or nothing.”

Op-Ed:  "Talking to adversaries — as President Ronald Reagan did in nuclear weapons negotiations with the Soviets and President Richard Nixon did in his opening to China — is something American leaders have long pursued as a matter of practical necessity and prudence. Yet in today’s poisonous political climate, Mr. Obama’s critics have gone to extraordinary lengths to undercut him and any deal. Their belligerent behavior is completely out of step with the American public, which overwhelmingly favors a negotiated solution with Iran, unquestionably the best approach."

Update: the Department of State release:  Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program.  The EU's Release is here.

Talks stretch into second day past deadline

The deadline came and went, now we're at deadline +1, heading into deadline +2.  Reuters: "The negotiations, aimed at blocking Iran's capacity to build a nuclear bomb in exchange for lifting sanctions, have become bogged down over crucial details of the accord, even as the broad outlines of an agreement have been reached . . . .

Self-Imposed Deadline is Today, 6 P.M. east U.S. coast time

As Reuters reports, as well as EAWorldView, AP, and AP, today is deadline day.  Reuters: "but disagreements on enrichment research and the pace of lifting sanctions threatened to scupper a deal that could end a 12-year standoff between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear ambitions and reduce the risk of another Middle East war. . . .Officials in the Swiss city of Lausanne said talks on a framework accord, which is intended as a prelude to a comprehensive agreement by the end of June, could yet fall apart."  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is in Moscow, but due back in Lausanne this afternoon, opined "there was a good chance of success." 

Talks End; will Resume Wednesday--P5+1 Rifts on Sanction Relief

The Guardian reports "the official reason for the adjournment is the need for members of Iranian delegation to attend the funeral on Sunday of President Hassan Rouhani’s mother, who died on Friday aged 90. But the talks had already stalled because of differences over sanctions, and the emergence of splits within the group of six major powers on how tough a position to take. The sharpest split is between the US, which had proposed a scheme for a phased lifting of UN sanctions in return for concrete Iranian actions to limit its nuclear programme, and France, which wants to offer only a symbolic easing of the punitive measures imposed over the past decade.

Iranian First Vice-President Jahangiri upbeat about nuclear talks

(IRNA)  The fourth round of talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif and his US counterpart John Kerry was held in Switzerland on Wednesday.  In a statement Wednesday, Iranian First VP  Eshaq Jahangiri "admitted that negotiations  . . . is in a very complicated and sensitive stage. 'When we have started stepping into a path and starting work with a motivation, we will definitely lead it to a satisfactory outcome.'"

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif reports "talks have reached fine details which demand a lot of work.  'At this juncture, it is unlikely that we need presence of all foreign ministers,' he told reporters on Wednesday morning in Lausanne."

Indeed, Iranian Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham stated "“We have reached mutual understanding on a majority of issues [in the negotiations], there just remains a single sticking point, which is very important,” Salehi told IRIB News on Tuesday."

Zarif Meets with Kerry in Switzerland, EU Foreign Policy Chief in Brussels

The Iran Project blog reports that, after the 5-hour meeting with Secretary Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister flew to Brussels yesterday afternoon and met with EU Foreign Policy Federica Mogherini Chief Monday afternoon.  Following the talks, Mohammad Javad Zarif, also held talks with his French, British and German counterparts plus Mogherini and in the presence of deputy foreign ministers in Brussels.  "After the talks, Zarif returned to Lausanne on March 16 to proceed with the nuclear talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry on drafting the deal to lift the sanctions."  As reported in the Islamic Republic News Agency, Mogherini was upbeat later that evening on prospects to conclude an agreement, as was her German counterpart.

Senate to take up Bill on Nuke Talks

Reuters reports "The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee could vote as soon as next week on a bill requiring President Barack Obama to submit any nuclear agreement with Iran for Congress' approval, the panel's chairman, Republican Senator Bob Corker, said on Monday."  Continuing, "the legislation would require Obama to submit a final nuclear agreement to Congress and restrict his authority to waive sanctions for 60 days so lawmakers have time to weigh in."  This may negate an attempt by the Obama Administration to validate a prospective agreement via U.N. Security Council Resolution. 

Saudis Will Want Parity on Terms of any Talks

As Reuters reports, "any terms that world powers grant Iran under a nuclear deal will be sought by Saudi Arabia and other countries, risking wider proliferation of atomic technology, a senior Saudi prince warned on Monday in a BBC interview. 'I've always said whatever comes out of these talks, we will want the same,' said Prince Turki al-Faisal, who has previously served as head of Saudi intelligence and Riyadh's ambassador to Washington and London but is no longer a government official."

Kerry & Zarif in Switzerland; Rest of Parties to Join

The U.S. & Iranian principals met Monday "in the Swiss city of Lausanne to try to narrow gaps before a March 31 deadline for a political agreement. The meeting included U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi, who also met on Sunday to negotiate technical details on how to curb Iran's nuclear program."  The rest of the parties will join sometime this week.

Kerry Unsure if Talks will Succeed

Reuters reports on John Kerry's commentary before P5+1 / Iran talks resume in Lausanne, Switzerland tomorrow.  "On the eve of fresh talks with Iran, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said it was unclear whether an interim agreement over its nuclear power program was within reach."

GOP Letter to Iran Analysis

The LA Times has an analytical piece on the GOP letter to Iran: "The disclosure this week that Republican senators sent a letter to Iran about its nuclear program is the latest example of how Obama's GOP critics have ignored the traditional deference to a commander in chief on foreign policy, while also reframing an issue of bipartisan concern in more starkly political terms."  

Iran's Foreign Minister weighed in directly on the issue two days ago.  Of note, a bigger issue than just the talks: "their [47 Republican Senators'] letter in fact undermines the credibility of thousands of such mere executive agreements that have been or will be entered into by the US with various other governments."

7 March Update from Sec. Kerry on the latest round of talks

The last round ended the 4th of March.  Kerry, as reported in the Guardian, met with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius: "officials acknowledged big gaps that must be bridged if the sides are to reach a deal by the end of March deadline that the negotiators have set.'There is progress in certain areas but there are also divergences,' Fabius said."  Talks resume on March 15th.

Obama: Iran Must Halt Nuclear Efforts for a Decade

In a lengthy piece, Reuters reports on a Monday interview with Obama, who downplays expectations over the talks: "Iran must commit to a verifiable freeze of at least 10 years on sensitive nuclear activity for a landmark atomic deal to be reached, but the odds are still against sealing a final agreement."

The Big Day: Netanyahu Addresses Congress

AFP previews the speech: "In a landmark speech to Congress, Netanyahu will seek to mobilise lawmakers to oppose an emerging deal with Tehran which is backed by President Barack Obama."

US - Israeli Ties in a Bad Place II: US Would Shoot Down IAF Attack on Iran?

Israeli National News is reporting on US intent to deny Israeli overflight of Iraq for an Israeli strike on Iran.  In 2014 Israel discovered US was holding secret talks with Iran over their nuclear capabilities, and considered the prospective plan a threat to Israeli security  . . . 

Israeli-US Ties on a Bad Place

On the eve of the P5 +1 talks resuming tomorrow on the political director level, then move to the Deputy level, and conclude at the Foreign Minister level.  Reuters has a piece on the fractured US Israeli relationship, stemming from a couple things: Netanyahu's planned address to a joint session of Congress, the talks, and more recently, US allegations of Israeli leaks intended to undermine the talks.  "Israel has always been careful to navigate between the Republican and Democrat camps. The planned address, however, has driven a rare wedge between Netanyahu's government and some congressional Democrats. Some two dozen or more of them plan to boycott the speech, according to unofficial estimates."

Latest Update on Talks

As reported by Reuters (and NYT) today: P6+1 met Sunday & Monday.  At issue is the breakout capacity...how long it should take Iran to be able to build a nuclear weapon: "We have always said we will have a one-year breakout time for a double digit number of years and that remains the case," the senior U.S. official said on Monday."  The talks included technical experts, but included Kerry & Zarif.  The sides agreed to resume talks Monday, March 2nd. 

Meanwhile, China Chimes In

"'Talks on the Iran nuclear issue face a historic opportunity, and striking a comprehensive deal on schedule is the trend of the times and the desire of the people,' Wang told his Iranian counterpart, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement issued on Monday."

Khamenei Letter to Obama?

So, as the Wall Street Journal initially reported on Feb. 13th, did Iran's Supreme leader the President a letter, or not (or not)?    Per the WSJ: "Neither the White House nor the Iranian government has officially confirmed any correspondence between the two. Iranian officials, in recent months, though, have told Tehran’s state media that some of Mr. Obama’s letters were answered, without specifying by whom."  Per Iran, "This claim by the American newspaper, Wall Street Journal, is an unprofessional media game,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said in a statement on Sunday."

Talks Breaking Down?

Times of Israel reports the P5+1 is now down to one: the United States is the only team left negotiating with Iran.  Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker: “It’s really more of a bilateral negotiation between the United States and Iran.”  The WSJ thinks the talks are at an impasse . . .

No More Deadline Extensions

WSJ reports--Obama: that there'll be no further deadlines, Zarif agrees . . . President confirms tensions with Israel over prospective deal.  "Minutes after Mr. Obama’s remarks, Mr. Netanyahu dismissed objections to his U.S. visit and said he was determined to take his case to Congress. “A bad agreement is being formulated in Munich that will endanger the existence of Israel,” Mr. Netanyahu said at a campaign event."  Netanyahu will take his case to Congress.  The sides agreed after last November's extension to conclude a framework deal by March & final details by June 30th.  Read on for the Iran question & answer at the joint Obama/Merkel Press Conference.

Iran Pushing for Progress in Talks as Deadline Nears

The NY Times reported there is recognition that "with a Republican-led Congress in Washington, an extension of the talks is virtually a political impossibility for the United States. And Secretary of State John Kerry, who met twice here with Mr. Zarif, including 90 minutes early Sunday morning, has been making an intensive effort to negotiate an accord."  There's also an affiliated timeline of the talks.  Meanwhile, the LA Times report on Iranian leader Khamenei's support for a deal.

Iran Wonders Who's in Charge? Obama (and Clinton) Step up to Answer

Interesting article by Reuters (Parsi) give one context to American politics.  When it comes to more sanctions with Iran, "Obama has succeeded in changing the underlying politics of the matter. The debate over Iran sanctions is no longer about Iran, but about war with Iran.

Iran Wants More EU Activity in Nuke Talks

In meeting with the Portugese Foreign Minister in Tehran yesterday, Iran FM Mohammad-Javad Zarif "hailed what he termed as 'positive' the European countries' current approach to oppose the imposition of any new sanctions against Tehran and trying out diplomacy."  Also, during the same visit President Rhohani stated the problems in the talks aren't legal or techincal, they're political.

Sanctions on Iran - Battle in the Senate

Numerous sources (here, here, here too) reported last week the GOP-led Congress intends to move to increase sanctions against Iran, as well as a vote on any Iran/P5+1 deal.  When asked for comment onthe scope of the santions, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Bob Corker replied it will not be "your mother's sanction bill."  UN Ambassador Powers urged Congress to hold off.  But santions are not limited to the GOP -- Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is drafting bi-partisan legislation, "but only in the event that no deal is reached by the June deadline established by the international coalition that is pressing Iran."  Senators opposed to sanctions are mounting a counter.  CNN explains why this is a big deal.

Iran & Venezuelan Efforts to Shore Up Oil Prices Fall Short; Iran: Industry Can Survive $25 Oil

Reuters reports efforts by Venezuela & Iran to shore up oil prices with its OPEC partners fall short.  Iran sees no sign of a shift within OPEC toward action to support oil prices, its oil minister said, adding its oil industry could ride out a further price slump to $25 a barrel.

Limited Progress After Last 5 Day's Talks; P5+1 to Meet in Feb

The last five day's diplomacy yielded limited progress. Reuters reported France's negotiator Nicolas de la Riviere comment "The mood was very good, but I don't think we made a lot of progress,"  Further, "all sides agreed to step up efforts to reach a political understanding by the end of March with a view to clinching a full-blown deal by their self-imposed deadline of June 30."

Zarif & Kerry Circumspect About Deal Prospects; Zarif Encourages More Russian Engagement

BBC reports on the Geneva meeting between Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif & SecState Kerry in advance of today's Iran/US political-level discussions and this weekend's gathering of the P6+1.  Interestingly, Zarif expressly opined "that giving Russia a more active role in the talks could be one way to speed things up. Both principals were noncommittal about prospect for success. 

Rouhani: Countries behind oil price drop will suffer

Reuters (Moghtader) reported on Iranian President Rouhani's statement on Tuesday "countries behind the fall in global oil prices would regret their decision and warned that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would suffer alongside Iran from the price drop."

Kerry & Zarif to Meet; Next Round of Political-level talks in Geneva will be "test of Iran's flexibility"

The next round of political meetings is this week, and SecState Kerry is meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif tomorrow.  As the LA Times reported, the US's & Iran's political teams will meet Thursday through Saturday, (1/15 through 1/17), and on 1/18 diplomats from all seven countries involved in the negotiations will hold a final session. Note the P5+1 is joined by China.

Iran & Venzuela Pledge to Work Together on Low Oil

AP's Ali Akbar Dareinin reported Iran and Venezuela vowed on January 10th to "to work together to stabilize falling global oil prices as Iran's supreme leader accused "enemies" of using crude prices as a political weapon." Khanenei continued, "Our common enemies are using oil as a political weapon and they definitely have a role in the sharp fall in oil price," state television quoted. . .