Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Self-Imposed Deadline is Today, 6 P.M. east U.S. coast time

As Reuters reports, as well as EAWorldView, AP, and AP, today is deadline day.  Reuters: "but disagreements on enrichment research and the pace of lifting sanctions threatened to scupper a deal that could end a 12-year standoff between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear ambitions and reduce the risk of another Middle East war. . . .Officials in the Swiss city of Lausanne said talks on a framework accord, which is intended as a prelude to a comprehensive agreement by the end of June, could yet fall apart."  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is in Moscow, but due back in Lausanne this afternoon, opined "there was a good chance of success." 

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Talks End; will Resume Wednesday--P5+1 Rifts on Sanction Relief

The Guardian reports "the official reason for the adjournment is the need for members of Iranian delegation to attend the funeral on Sunday of President Hassan Rouhani’s mother, who died on Friday aged 90. But the talks had already stalled because of differences over sanctions, and the emergence of splits within the group of six major powers on how tough a position to take. The sharpest split is between the US, which had proposed a scheme for a phased lifting of UN sanctions in return for concrete Iranian actions to limit its nuclear programme, and France, which wants to offer only a symbolic easing of the punitive measures imposed over the past decade.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Iranian First Vice-President Jahangiri upbeat about nuclear talks

(IRNA)  The fourth round of talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif and his US counterpart John Kerry was held in Switzerland on Wednesday.  In a statement Wednesday, Iranian First VP  Eshaq Jahangiri "admitted that negotiations  . . . is in a very complicated and sensitive stage. 'When we have started stepping into a path and starting work with a motivation, we will definitely lead it to a satisfactory outcome.'"

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif reports "talks have reached fine details which demand a lot of work.  'At this juncture, it is unlikely that we need presence of all foreign ministers,' he told reporters on Wednesday morning in Lausanne."

Indeed, Iranian Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham stated "“We have reached mutual understanding on a majority of issues [in the negotiations], there just remains a single sticking point, which is very important,” Salehi told IRIB News on Tuesday."

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Zarif Meets with Kerry in Switzerland, EU Foreign Policy Chief in Brussels

The Iran Project blog reports that, after the 5-hour meeting with Secretary Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister flew to Brussels yesterday afternoon and met with EU Foreign Policy Federica Mogherini Chief Monday afternoon.  Following the talks, Mohammad Javad Zarif, also held talks with his French, British and German counterparts plus Mogherini and in the presence of deputy foreign ministers in Brussels.  "After the talks, Zarif returned to Lausanne on March 16 to proceed with the nuclear talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry on drafting the deal to lift the sanctions."  As reported in the Islamic Republic News Agency, Mogherini was upbeat later that evening on prospects to conclude an agreement, as was her German counterpart.

Senate to take up Bill on Nuke Talks

Reuters reports "The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee could vote as soon as next week on a bill requiring President Barack Obama to submit any nuclear agreement with Iran for Congress' approval, the panel's chairman, Republican Senator Bob Corker, said on Monday."  Continuing, "the legislation would require Obama to submit a final nuclear agreement to Congress and restrict his authority to waive sanctions for 60 days so lawmakers have time to weigh in."  This may negate an attempt by the Obama Administration to validate a prospective agreement via U.N. Security Council Resolution. 

Monday, March 16, 2015

Saudis Will Want Parity on Terms of any Talks

As Reuters reports, "any terms that world powers grant Iran under a nuclear deal will be sought by Saudi Arabia and other countries, risking wider proliferation of atomic technology, a senior Saudi prince warned on Monday in a BBC interview. 'I've always said whatever comes out of these talks, we will want the same,' said Prince Turki al-Faisal, who has previously served as head of Saudi intelligence and Riyadh's ambassador to Washington and London but is no longer a government official."

Kerry & Zarif in Switzerland; Rest of Parties to Join


The U.S. & Iranian principals met Monday "in the Swiss city of Lausanne to try to narrow gaps before a March 31 deadline for a political agreement. The meeting included U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi, who also met on Sunday to negotiate technical details on how to curb Iran's nuclear program."  The rest of the parties will join sometime this week.


Saturday, March 14, 2015

Kerry Unsure if Talks will Succeed

Reuters reports on John Kerry's commentary before P5+1 / Iran talks resume in Lausanne, Switzerland tomorrow.  "On the eve of fresh talks with Iran, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said it was unclear whether an interim agreement over its nuclear power program was within reach."

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

GOP Letter to Iran Analysis

The LA Times has an analytical piece on the GOP letter to Iran: "The disclosure this week that Republican senators sent a letter to Iran about its nuclear program is the latest example of how Obama's GOP critics have ignored the traditional deference to a commander in chief on foreign policy, while also reframing an issue of bipartisan concern in more starkly political terms."  

Iran's Foreign Minister weighed in directly on the issue two days ago.  Of note, a bigger issue than just the talks: "their [47 Republican Senators'] letter in fact undermines the credibility of thousands of such mere executive agreements that have been or will be entered into by the US with various other governments."

7 March Update from Sec. Kerry on the latest round of talks

The last round ended the 4th of March.  Kerry, as reported in the Guardian, met with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius: "officials acknowledged big gaps that must be bridged if the sides are to reach a deal by the end of March deadline that the negotiators have set.'There is progress in certain areas but there are also divergences,' Fabius said."  Talks resume on March 15th.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Obama: Iran Must Halt Nuclear Efforts for a Decade

In a lengthy piece, Reuters reports on a Monday interview with Obama, who downplays expectations over the talks: "Iran must commit to a verifiable freeze of at least 10 years on sensitive nuclear activity for a landmark atomic deal to be reached, but the odds are still against sealing a final agreement."

The Big Day: Netanyahu Addresses Congress

AFP previews the speech: "In a landmark speech to Congress, Netanyahu will seek to mobilise lawmakers to oppose an emerging deal with Tehran which is backed by President Barack Obama."

US - Israeli Ties in a Bad Place II: US Would Shoot Down IAF Attack on Iran?

Israeli National News is reporting on US intent to deny Israeli overflight of Iraq for an Israeli strike on Iran.  In 2014 Israel discovered US was holding secret talks with Iran over their nuclear capabilities, and considered the prospective plan a threat to Israeli security  . . . 

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Israeli-US Ties on a Bad Place

On the eve of the P5 +1 talks resuming tomorrow on the political director level, then move to the Deputy level, and conclude at the Foreign Minister level.  Reuters has a piece on the fractured US Israeli relationship, stemming from a couple things: Netanyahu's planned address to a joint session of Congress, the talks, and more recently, US allegations of Israeli leaks intended to undermine the talks.  "Israel has always been careful to navigate between the Republican and Democrat camps. The planned address, however, has driven a rare wedge between Netanyahu's government and some congressional Democrats. Some two dozen or more of them plan to boycott the speech, according to unofficial estimates."