Graphical View of DPRK Missile Launches

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P5+1 & Iran Strike a Deal

A deal is agreed, not only between the P5+1, but a lesser-reported deal on a roadmap between the IAEA & Iran.

Update: The deal, termed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is here.

Al Jazeera coverage on the P5+1/Iran deal begins here, and also:

- Report (Movahed) on the unleashing of Iran's economy ("In short, an expansion in exports of the nonoil sectors such as manufacturing will allow Iran to adopt the growth model that the East Asian “tigers” such as South Korea and China followed. If Rouhani can keep the nuclear deal on course and implement new economic policies, Iran may soon be recognized as one of the world’s most promising economies of the 21st century." (embedded links removed))
- Report (Fenton) on Obama's challenge to now reassure Gulf allies, as well as the dunamcs of that bloc ("President Barack Obama may have hoped to gather the leaders of all the U.S.-allied Arab monarchies who make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at Camp David on Thursday, but only two of the six invited nations, Qatar and Kuwait, are sending their heads of state.  The most significant no-show will be Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud Salman. The king’s decision to send his crown prince and deputy crown prince instead is made more notable by the fact that the White House had previously announced that Salman would be present. . . . The downgrading of attendance by some of the Gulf leaders (Bahrain also changed its representation, while the leaders of the UAE and Oman are staying away due to ongoing health issues) 'is an illustration of the lack of trust that exists with the Obama administration,' said Joseph Kechichian, a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.")
- Analysis of Iranian conservatives' critical view of the deal ("The recent quarrel between Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Mahdi Kouchakzadeh, a hardline member of parliament, is an indication that an agreement, if reached, could increase political tensions in Iran.")

Reuters coverage here, (multiple attributions) ("Under the deal, sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union and United Nations would be lifted in return for Iran agreeing long-term curbs on a nuclear program that the West has suspected was aimed at creating a nuclear bomb") as well as:

- Live coverage of breaking events
- Report (Stephenson) on dropping price of crude

Haaretz covers Israeli criticism of the deal: ("Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers was 'a mistake of historic proportions,' issuing yet another attack on the agreement less than an hour before the two sides were to formally announce the deal." (embedded quotes removed))

And an opinion piece (Michael) critical of Netanyahu's stance (registration required).

Lastly, the IAEA released a statement on the roadmap deal, said the Director General: "The Road-map sets out a process, under the November 2013 Framework for Cooperation, to enable the Agency, with the cooperation of Iran, to make an assessment of issues relating to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme by the end of 2015. It sets out a clear sequence of activities over the coming months, including the provision by Iran of explanations regarding outstanding issues. It provides for technical expert meetings, technical measures and discussions, as well as a separate arrangement regarding the issue of Parchin."

Early Outline of the Deal?

Reuters reports  (Hafezi, Charbonneau, Irish, Mohammed) "U.N. inspectors would have access to all suspect Iranian sites, including military ones, under a draft nuclear deal that six major powers and Iran are working to finalize on Tuesday, a diplomatic source said."  Al Jazeera (unattributed) also provided an update, though it offered no assertion of imminently closing the deal.  

Reuters continued: 

The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the U.N. access would be based on consultations between the six powers and Iran under the draft deal, which would impose limits on the Iranian nuclear program in return for economic sanctions relief.

The foreign ministers of Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States met for about an hour just after midnight as they struggled to complete the agreement, which has been under negotiation for more than 20 months. 

An agreement, if one can be reached, could mark a watershed in Tehran's relations with Western nations, which suspect that Iran has used its civil nuclear program as a cover to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Iran denies this.

A comprehensive meeting between Iran and the powers will be held at 0800 GMT on Tuesday (4 am EDT), the semi-official Fars news agency reports.  Iran's Foreign Minister . . . and E.U.'s Foreign Policy Chief . . . are expected to read a joint statement.

No Deal Yet

Updates from Reuters & Iranian PressTV . . .

From Reuters: "'I cannot promise whether the remaining issues can be resolved tonight or tomorrow night. Some issues still remain unresolved and, until they are solved, we cannot say an agreement has been reached,' Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi as saying in Vienna.  Diplomats close to the talks said there were contingency plans for an announcement ceremony on Monday if the negotiators sealed an agreement, which would open the door to ending sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy in exchange for at least a decade of curbs on its nuclear program."

From PressTV: "During their [Monday] meeting, the Chinese foreign minister told Zarif, 'I saw your public comment. We had expected an agreement to be reached on the 12th [of July] and you said in your public comment there will not be any further extensions beyond the 13th, sending out a positive message.'  Zarif responded, 'I obviously believe there shouldn't be any extension but we could work as long as necessary to finish this.'  Speaking after the meeting with his US Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday, Zarif said there is no plan to extend the talks."

Meanwhile, TheGuardian looks at oil prices in should a deal occur.

16 Days in Vienna...talks on third extension...Deal close?

On Friday the talks were extended until tomorrow, 13 July.   This also means the Joint Plan of Action, which is the interim agreement from November, is also extended, as is the freeze on EU & US sanctions.

According to a Friday NBC News report (Abdullah), "The sides remain divided over issues that include a U.N. arms embargo on Iran which Western powers want to keep in place, access for inspectors to military sites in Iran and answers from Tehran over past activity suspected of military aims."

Meanwhile, CBS News reports (CBS/AP) Iran's Supreme Leader called for continued struggle against the United States: "Iran's state-run Press TV cited Khamenei as calling the U.S. an 'excellent example of arrogance.' It said Khamenei told university students in Tehran to be 'prepared to continue the struggle against arrogant powers.'  Even if Khamenei isn't signaling that the talks have failed, his comments appear to be a blow to U.S. hopes that an agreement will lead to improved bilateral relations that could translate into increased cooperation in a common cause - the fight against Islamic radicals."

And today, the Times of Israel, relaying reports from Iranian news outlet PressTV, reported Zarif rejected closing a deal before Monday.  "The marathon nuclear talks underway in Vienna still require 'some more work," said Zarif.  "Sunday evening’s negotiations included a meeting between Iran’s deputy foreign ministers at the talks, Abbas Araqchi and Majid Takht-e Ravanchi, and US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and National Security Council official Robert Malley . . . . The comments from Zarif echoed an earlier statement from Western diplomats that the sides would likely sign the deal Monday, but still had issues to overcome.  In Tehran, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said Sunday the sides were 'very close.'"  The piece continued, quoting one Iranian official, "'we are working hard, but a deal tonight is simply logistically impossible,' the Iranian official said, noting that the agreement will run roughly 100 pages."

Update

A number of sources (Economic Times, CNS News, ABC News) have provided a similar update as the current round of talks enter their 13th (and final?) day:

"US Secretary of State Kerry . . . has been in Vienna since 26 June, while Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif has made a short trip to Tehran [for a consult].  Other foreign ministers have come and gone, however all but the top diplomats from Russia and China were expected to be present at Thursday's meetings."  [The latter two are at the BRIC Summit in Ufa, Russia.]  Also, "on Wednesday US Energy Secretary Moniz met with Iranian nuclear cheif Ali Akbar Salehi for more than three hours, indicating that problems remained that only technicians can solve."  The rest is rehash of previously reported tidbits:

• Iran's President was preparing for a "post-sanctions" era, suggesting a deal might be in sight.
• President Obama conferred with the US negotiating team via secure video conference to provide guidance
• If the talks are approved after Thursday, Congress will have two months to review the accord, vice one if the deal is made by Thursday.
• Secretary Kerry "has been in Vienna since 26 June, while Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has made a short trip to Tehran for consultations.  Other foreign ministers have come & gone, however all but the top diplomats from Russian and China were expected to be present at Thursday's meetings."  
• "On Wednesday, US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz met with Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi for more than three hours, indicating problems remained that only technicians could solve."
• Iran's Zarif: With mutual respect anything is possible
• US (White House): We'll walk away if we don't have a good deal
• US Repubicans, as well as Israel & Saudi Arabia, remain skeptical

The NYT (Gordon) adds the political dimension as to the extended push, and why today is so important: "

“It is pretty darn hard for the Iranians to go home and deal with the politics in Iran,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under the ground rules for the briefing. “Everyone understands that once we leave here, we are in less control of what happens in this negotiation. It gets more complicated, not less complicated.”

Also, some more details: "As Mr. Moniz and Mr. Salehi tried to resolve the final issues on Thursday morning, Federica Mogherini, the foreign policy chief for the European Union, convened a separate session with Mr. Kerry and senior diplomats from Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia, the five other world powers that are taking part in the negotiations with Iran."

The deadline is midnight Thursday (2pm EDT).

7 July Deadline Passes. . .

State Department Spokesperson John Kirby reports the talks are extended (sort of) until 10 July:  "in order to allow for additional time to negotiate we’re going to take the necessary technical steps we need for the measures of the Joint Plan of Action to remain in place through July 10th. Secretary Kerry will remain in Vienna to continue discussions with our P5+1 partners, High Representative Mogherini, and Foreign Minister Zarif. We’re taking these negotiations hour by hour, day by day, and we made substantial progress, I think, in many areas. But the work is highly technical and very, very important for everybody concerned. So again, I think this was a practical step that needed to be taken, and it was taken, and Secretary Kerry and the team remain out there . . . ." The conference continued . . .